ABBV | Q4 2024

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Overview

• Non-GAAP EPS of $2.16 misses by $0.10.

• Revenue of $15.1B (+5.6% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

Takeaways

AbbVie (ABBV) closed out 2024 on a high note, delivering $10.12 in adjusted EPS and $56.3 billion in revenue (+4.6% YoY), despite a $5 billion decline in U.S. Humira sales.

The company’s next big blockbuster drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, more than made up for Humira’s losses, with sales soaring 22% in Q4 and expected to hit nearly $24 billion in 2025—which is $6 billion more than last year.

Skyrizi sales jumped 58% in Q4, bringing in $3.8 billion, while Rinvoq sales climbed 47%, reaching $1.8 billion. Management also raised its long-term forecast for the two drugs, now expecting them to generate over $31 billion by 2027.

Management emphasized that this growth is coming primarily from increased adoption and expanding market share across all approved indications, rather than price increases. Both drugs are rapidly gaining market share across multiple conditions like psoriasis, arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

Beyond immunology, AbbVie’s neuroscience and oncology businesses are also showing strong momentum.

Neuroscience is projected to generate $10 billion in 2025, led by Vraylar, Botox, and migraine treatments like Ubrelvy and Qulipta. Oncology sales are also accelerating, with Venclexta up 13% and Elahere gaining traction in ovarian cancer.

AbbVie also has major opportunities in lung and colorectal cancer, particularly with its Teliso-V and ABBV-400 (Temab-A) pipeline drugs, which are expected to be key growth drivers in the coming years.

AbbVie also continues to invest heavily in R&D, ensuring a stacked pipeline across immunology, oncology, neuroscience, and aesthetics. AbbVie has expanded its early-stage pipeline with over 20 new deals to strengthen its presence in all of these areas, where management sees significant growth potential.

Along with this, the company has secured several key drug approvals in 2024, including Skyrizi for ulcerative colitis, Epkinly for lymphoma, Elahere for ovarian cancer, and Vyalev for advanced Parkinson’s disease.

Looking ahead, AbbVie is confident it can keep growing at a solid pace, with mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 and high-single-digit growth through 2029. With no major patent expirations for the rest of the decade, the company believes it has a clear path to execute on these grand ambitions.

For the year, adjusted EPS is expected to be between $12.12 and $12.32, and free cash flow is projected to reach $17 billion, allowing the company to continue raising dividends and paying down debt (they plan to repay $3 billion in debt this year).

Overall, it’s safe to say that AbbVie has successfully moved past the Humira patent cliff and is now in full growth mode.

With Skyrizi and Rinvoq continuing to put up killer numbers, neuroscience and oncology gaining traction, and aesthetics expected to recover, the company has a clear roadmap for strong and (hopefully) sustainable growth through the rest of the decade.

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